The Economist magazine recently introduced a pair of articles on Central America as follows: “In the first of two reports on the threat of rampant violence to Central America’s small republics, we look at the risk of Honduras becoming a failed state.” It is premature to declare Honduras a failed state, but the magazine is right to warn about the gathering storm clouds in this corner of Middle America.
If physical insecurity is the foremost quality of a failed state, as argued by Robert Rotberg, Honduras is most definitely a failing state. Gang and drug-related violence is pushing Honduras in a very negative direction, despite some recent economic growth. The article in The Economist provides the terrible details about the country’s world-leading murder rate. For comparison, South Africa – a very violent society – now has a murder rate that is less than one-fifth that of Honduras, and declining.
Hondurans would be right to cast some blame for their plight on the United States and Mexico for external pressures related to illicit drug flows. Even so, it is very telling that the neighboring states of Guatemala and El Salvador are both seeing gains in physical security, as is Mexico.
Sadly, despite the country’s democratic trappings, the rule of law is breaking down in Honduras. The Economist article echoes a section from the 2012 Human Rights Watch annual report: “Violence and threats against journalists, human rights defenders, political activists, and transgender people continued [in 2011]. Those responsible for these abuses are rarely held to account.” Beyond these particular groups, ordinary citizens – and especially young adult males – are routinely the victims of crimes that are never investigated or prosecuted.
At some point, investors will no longer tolerate the lawlessness, and they will leave for other markets. Honduras simply does not have enough economic leverage to keep that capital within its borders.