Egypt’s Winding Road to Democracy

Anti-Morsi protest in Cairo, Egypt, August 2012. Photo credit: Gigi Ibrahim (via Flickr, Creative Commons license).

The recent fall of Egypt’s democratically-elected civilian government is in line with the experiences of many other transitional states attempting to move from authoritarian to democratic rule. As with Egypt’s false start of 2012–2013, transitional states frequently revert back to authoritarian regimes.

In the period between World Wars I and II, over half of the world’s democracies regressed to non-democratic forms of government. After a notable period of decolonization in the mid-twentieth century, the world experienced what Samuel Huntington referred to as another “reverse wave” of democratization in the 1960s. The latter wave of reversals was particularly notable in Africa. Likewise the “third wave of democratization” (from the mid-1970s to the mid-1990s) was followed by some notable setbacks, particularly in the post-Soviet region.

The drive for political freedom in the Arab world—possibly including the emergence of liberal democracies—will likely be a generational struggle. The over-reach of the Muslim Brotherhood in Cairo, and a general lack of rule of law—in which the military, courts, and masses are all complicit—do not spell the end of democratic aspirations in this key Arab state.

Humans beings, after all, do learn lessons and recast their behaviors and beliefs. In the wake of the Muslim Brotherhood’s contempt for political compromise and respect for the rule of law, Egyptians must grapple with what to do with a political party that has limited respect for democracy. The military’s ouster of Morsi was distasteful, at best. Perhaps it was the least bad path for Egypt’s future.

State Secrets and Political Legitimacy

A former U.S. contractor with access to classified materials has helped re-open a debate about tradeoffs between privacy and security. It was surprising, but not shocking, to learn that the Obama administration—and particularly the National Security Agency (NSA)—has been using “big data” methods to troll through the phone records of millions of American citizens. Predictably, administration officials claim that numerous (dozens?) of terrorists attacks have been thwarted by the data mining. Official spokespeople have assured U.S. citizens that NSA and FBI agents have not been snooping on the actual content of their phone calls.

The New York Times and other major newspapers are right to roundly condemn the actions of the Obama and George W. Bush administrations. Public trust in government was not running very high before these latest revelations. Politicians of both parties have been guilty of over-reach in pursuing what many conclude to be unconstitutional searches. And, although I often disagree with their substantive stances on issues, the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) should be applauded for pursuing these recent revelations in the judicial system.

The United States is not a weak or a failed state, but my country is struggling with public trust in our system of government. Few dispute the need for state secrets. Even so, the recent Congressional testimony of General (retired) Keith Alexander, NSA Director, adds to citizen distrust of senior officials. In weak and failed states, official half-truths and lies are commonplace. And, ominously for Americans, such lies are often justified in the name of “security.” Who doesn’t want to be more secure? On this point the libertarians have it right: Americans should be more concerned about security from government over-reach.

South Sudan: Fragile and Resilient

In July 2011, South Sudan gained political independence. With the exception of Eritrea, no other African state has been created in the post-colonial period (i.e., since the 1950s). South Sudan now faces a long and difficult road to stability and prosperity.

Like many of the former European colonies in Africa – especially the Belgian and Portuguese territories – South Sudan’s independence inheritance was limited. In the case of South Sudan, governments in Khartoum systematically marginalized this geographically peripheral region. Some basic data tell a grim tale of under-development:

• Only about 25 percent of the young state’s population is literate. Most developing countries have figures in the range of 50 to 80 percent.
• South Sudan possesses a physical area larger than France. The new country, though, has virtually no paved roads. The longest stretch – connecting the capital of Juba to Uganda – is only about 100 kilometers.
• Less than 1 percent of the population has access to electricity. That’s right, only a tiny fraction of South Sudanese can count on reliable access to a power grid. The 1 percent figure presumably does not include those who have access to a generator.
• Maternal and infant mortality rates are falling, but they are shockingly high. The improved figures (since independence) are: 76 infants deaths per one thousand and 2,054 maternal deaths for every one hundred thousand births. This maternal mortality rate is the worst in the world.
• A disputed border with Sudan and internal conflicts have led to the displacement of hundreds of thousands.

Yet, the new country has weathered its early independence phase better than many predicted. This assessment is especially remarkable given the long standoff with Sudan over oil transit fees. And South Sudan does have key natural resources other than oil. A high percentage of arable land, fairly dependable fresh water supplies, and ecotourism potential are a few of the country’s key natural assets.

The world’s newest state, though, is landlocked and situated in a highly volatile region of Africa. The Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo are both neighboring failed states. Adjacent portions of Uganda, Kenya, and Sudan have also experienced armed conflict or communal unrest in recent years. The South Sudanese people will require much more resilience in the years ahead.

Cityscapes from Fragile States

The Haitian capital, Port-au-Prince, is still struggling to rebuild after a massive earthquake in January 2010. The residential areas in this photo are representative of the low-rise, crowded neighborhoods of many cities in fragile states. Photo credit: Siri B.L. (via Flickr, Creative Commons license).

Urban growth in developing regions has been rapid for many decades. In some cases, major cities are doubling in population in less than a generation. It is in these places that key challenges of weak and failed states are focused. Cities like Lagos and Karachi are now among the biggest in the world. These two are among the candidates to overtake Tokyo and Mexico City as the largest on Earth.

Lagos, Nigeria is infamous for its clogged roadways. One outgrowth of “go slows” is street hawkers (pictured) who weave among slow-moving vehicles. Photo credit: dolapo (via Flickr, Creative Commons license).

The “informal sector” in developing countries includes many workers who recycle materials from trash dumps and other places. Pictured is a scene from Lagos, Nigeria. Photo credit: boellstiftung (via Flickr, Creative Commons license).

Cities of fragile states are youthful, which is a key cause of their rapid population growth. Above is a school group in Karachi, Pakistan. Photo credit: Photogeraphar 0345-3333888 (via Flickr, Creative Commons license).

 

 

Corruption Kills … and Other Signs

Effective states are marked by a strong respect for the rule of law. Corruption undermines a culture of respect for the rule of law. Instead, government decisions – both big and small – are shaped by corrupt practices. Or, in the case of “grand corruption,” senior officials simply help themselves to public resources in unlawful ways. In the end, though, all states – even the most effective ones – face a perpetual struggle against graft and official thievery. The images below provide some snapshots of anti-corruption campaigns in places as diverse as Detroit, India, and Uganda.

An ironic shot (2007) from the Indian-controlled portion of the disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir. Photo credit: watchsmart (via Flickr, Creative Commons license).

This sign from Uganda says it all. When corruption results in ineffective governance, it is indeed deadly. Photo credit: futureatlas.com (via Flickr, Creative Commons license).

What does it mean to inhabit a “corruption-free zone”? Photo credit: jbracken (via Flickr, Creative Commons license).

Corruption is universal, as this sticker from Detroit, Michigan, U.S.A. suggests. Photo credit: CAVE CANEM (via Flickr, Creative Commons license).

A simple, but powerful statement of civil disobedience. Photo credit: Naberacka (via Flickr, Creative Commons license).

Weak and Failed States in 2012

The year 2012 was an eventful one for the world’s weak and failed states. What follows is a quick review of some key trends and highlights from the year that was.

In Afghanistan, the “forgotten war” continued. A long-sought political settlement with the Taliban proved elusive as NATO and the United States prepared for a full military departure in 2014. Insider attacks by Afghan government security personnel on NATO soldiers grabbed headlines, as did continued evidence of widespread corruption and dysfunction in the Afghan government. Afghan watchers are very nervous about the post-2014 era.

In 2012, Pakistan muddled along on a variety of fronts. Relations between Pakistan and the United States remained very strained, even as cooperation improved somewhat by the end of the year. Most critically, the military establishment has strengthened its position with regard to the country’s politicians. Civilian control of the military is only an aspiration at the present time, and true democracy is therefore on hold. Militant attacks on aid workers halted efforts to eradicate polio in Pakistan’s border regions.

In Syria, the ruling Assad clique fought a losing effort of regime survival. If last year was a tragic year in Syria, the year ahead may be catastrophic. The United Nations warns that this key crossroads state could produce more than one-half million refugees in 2013. Intense urban warfare in Damascus and Aleppo could lead to truly awful humanitarian conditions.

Mali, previously stable and democratic, suffered major setbacks in 2012. Photo credit: Magharebia (via Flickr, Creative Commons license).

In three African states, Mali, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and the Central African Republic (CAR), insurgents secured or expanded zones of open defiance. Governments lost the ability to control vast portions of territory, a key marker of state failure. The troubles in the DRC, related to the M23 rebel group, were particularly noteworthy. Rwanda and Uganda again meddled in the internal affairs of their large neighbor, as they did during Africa’s World War of the 1990s and early 2000s.

Despite gains in governance and economic development over the last decade, Nigeria continued to suffer the effects of a well-organized Islamist insurgency. Boko Haram does not seem to represent a mortal threat to the central government, but the Islamists’ activities are further straining religious coexistence in a deeply divided country.

Finally, I close this review with some hopeful developments. In Southeast Asia, the long-mismanaged Myanmar (Burma) is moving towards political openness and engagement with the rest of the world. Though sometimes ignored due to its location between China and India, Burma is an important, resource-rich state that deserves more attention. And Burma seems to be steadily moving in a positive direction, thanks in part to a more enlightened set of autocrats.

Burma’s opposition and pro-democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi. Photo credit: World Economic Forum (via Flickr, Creative Commons license).

In the Horn of Africa, 2012 was a relatively good year for Somalia. The Western-financed AU mission is helping the Mogadishu-based government push back militant Islamists. Al-Shabaab lost a huge amount of territory in the last year. And, whatever the reasons, maritime piracy off Somalia declined in the last 12 months.

In Latin America, a new narrative is emerging in Mexico, and perhaps all of Central America. In Latin America’s second giant, economic development and new political momentum is shifting the discourse away from drug violence, even though that violence is still stubbornly high.

Weak States and Global Economic Development

This post was written by a guest blogger, Evelyn Robinson

Human suffering and insecurity worldwide is being caused by fragile states and violent conflict, a world leader has said. Finland’s Under-Secretary of State for International Development, Anne Sipilainen, spoke out at the opening of the recent conference into conflict and the post-2015 development agenda in Monrovia, Liberia.

Ms. Sipilainen said more than 1.5 billion people live in countries that are in constant battle with violence and political wrangling. She added that peace processes are being demolished by criminal violence and countries’ inability to generate security, justice and economic development.

The minister said: “Environment suffers, education suffers, the most basic health care cannot be provided, child mortality increases, women are not heard… in this kind of condition, it is very difficult to work on long term development challenges and goals.”

The conference was co-hosted by Liberia and Finland’s governments in the latest United Nation-led push to involve societies in issues surrounding disasters, conflict and security and how a universal framework can be created. A new approach must be taken to see the development of fragile states, Ms. Sipilainen added. Only then would we see the international partners coming together and witness international money transfer, equality and aid across the globe.

Also speaking at the conference, Liberia’s Finance Minister Amara Konneh said almost half of all civil wars and political upheaval in the world between 1990 and 2005 took place in Africa, and its war-related deaths far exceeded all other conflicts in the world. He highlighted the importance for leaders at the conference to agree on how conflict, violence, disaster and fragility hinder development around the world and how solutions must be met.

It is recognized that conflict, violence and disaster are huge obstacles which lie in the way of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) being met in many countries. The eight aims of the MDGs involve: eradicating extreme hunger; universal education; gender equality; child mortality; improving maternal health; combating HIV and AIDS; environment sustainability; and global partnerships.

Are Jobs In Kenya Being Killed By Corruption?

The reality of leaving school with an education only to find there are no jobs is one frustration many young Kenyans have to deal with. But imagine how it must feel to realize that about 250,000 jobs may never be created because of corruption in your country.

The World Bank has revealed in its latest report “Kenya at Work” that the loss of resources at the hands of fraud amount to that quarter of a million number. As the economic climate stands, about 50,000 youths leaving education gain employment, out of a total of 800,000 graduates every year.

The World Bank country director, Johannes Zutt, said: “Nepotism, tribalism, sexual harassment and corruption determine who gets these jobs leaving the rest to find their own means of survival.” The World Bank’s research says firms pay up to 12 per cent value of government contracts in order to win them, and four per cent of their sales goes towards bribes.

The organization concludes total bribes on government contracts are Sh36 billion, while another Sh69 billion is paid in other kickbacks. The report suggests: “Kenya stands out for its high level of business-related corruption.”

The country’s growth is below the African average and substantially below the growth of its neighbors in the East Africa Community. Mr. Zutt said other obstacles in Kenya’s job creation are access to electricity and poor infrastructure. General election shocks and the Euro crisis have left Kenya’s economy in a “stable but vulnerable” state.

The report says: “Kenya’s economy is out of balance and the external position has become even more vulnerable as the country’s current account deficit has skyrocketed and could reach 15 per cent of GDP in 2012. This is among the worst external balances in the world and poses a significant risk to Kenya’s economic stability.”

An imbalance in import and export has struck over the past ten years, as the fragile state’s imports have grown faster than its exports and the top four exports not making enough to pay for oil imports alone. The World Bank report recommends that manufacturing capacity should be boosted. And, critically, Kenya must deal with the negative effects of corruption on farmers.

The Sweetest Moments for Democracies (and Elections in Failed States)

Obama won, again. Americans were prepared for a long election night, and the potential for a repeat of the Bush versus Gore (2000) counting process. And, despite many (deepening) flaws in America’s democracy, Mitt Romney provided us another of democracy’s sweetest moments at the end of a hard-fought presidential election. Like the losing candidates before him, he conceded defeat and respected the rules of the game. In too many fledgling democracies and weak states, electoral losers do not accept defeat, even when it is legitimate.

Before we move on to challenges of democratization in developing countries, it is worth noting briefly the current challenges to democratic governance in the United States. It is important that Americans and others recognize that the U.S.A. is not necessarily the model democracy that it once was. Here are just a few of the key issues plaguing the American polity:

• The inability of Congress and the president to seek common ground on big issues facing the country.
• Rising incivility among citizens and elected officials alike.
• An electoral system awash in money, and the corrupting influence of that money.
• Gerrymandered legislative districts, leading to a disconnect between citizens and lawmakers, as well as a more polarized debate.

Although democracy in the United States is not in full health, respect for electoral process is alive and well. If only it were so in many transitional democracies of Africa and Asia.

The former president of Cote d’Ivoire refused to leave office in 2010 after his electoral defeat. Gbagbo’s intransigence led to additional armed conflict in this West African state. Photo credit: Paterne (Creative Commons license).

Why is accepting electoral defeat so difficult in new democracies? Let us count the reasons:

1. Elections are often held under conditions that are not fair. Ruling parties often appoint biased officials who oversee voting. Media coverage is often slanted in favor of those in power. And so on.
2. Electoral defeat in poor countries often leads to significant loss of income for losers. Mitt Romney will almost certainly make more money outside the White House. Not so for the elites who lose elections in many developing countries. Access to public offices – including the pay, perks, and potential for corrupt dealings – affords huge material opportunities for politicians.
3. Electoral losers – both elites and ordinary citizens – may face persecution from the winning side.

In the recent decade, numerous states have descended farther into state weakness or failure after disputed elections. Notable cases include: Madagascar (2002), Zimbabwe (2008), and Cote d’Ivoire (2010).

On the other hand, principled and courageous politicians – such as those in Ghana – can sometimes choose sweet democratic moments, and gracefully concede defeat.

What are your thoughts about elections around the world? Could the international community do more to help electoral losers concede defeat?

Business Environments in Failed States

Though it has many critics, the World Bank Group fulfills many key roles in the global system. One key role is provision of data to policy makers, citizens, and investors. One closely watched index is the “Doing Business” survey, which assesses how easy it is to start and operate a company in different countries. The index formally measures 10 indicators. Examples of these indicators include: ease of registering a new firm; accessibility of consistent electricity supply; credit availability; ease of trading across international borders; and the quality of courts. Each country receives an ordinal ranking, between 1 and 183, and a lower number indicates greater ease of doing business.

The Doing Business survey is another important way to assess the effectiveness of governance in various parts of the globe. While it is possible to have a middle ranking and still achieve strong economic growth (e.g. China, Brazil), states that perform poorly on this survey are generally stagnant. Following is a list of the worst 20 performers, starting from the very bottom:

Chad (183rd out of 183 states), Central African Republic, Republic of the Congo,

Eritrea, Guinea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Venezuela, Guinea-Bissau, Benin,

Haiti, Niger, Angola, Zimbabwe, Djibouti, Burundi, Timor Leste (East Timor),

Cote d’Ivoire, Uzbekistan, Laos, and Iraq.

Many of these bottom 20 states have already been directly highlighted elsewhere in this blog. All on this list, however, have been indirectly discussed. Common struggles include: authoritarian tendencies in governance, lack of the rule of law, high levels of corruption, poor infrastructure, and arbitrary judicial proceedings.

Even so, some critically weak or failed states perform somewhat better on this World Bank survey. Though hardly excelling, Afghanistan is just outside the bottom 20, at 160^th. Pakistan has a middle ranking (105^th), and Nigeria (133^rd) has made some significant progress since the end of military rule in 1999.

Other low-income and/or modestly weak states also perform fairly well in the ranking. These include: Georgia (16^th), Colombia (42^nd), Rwanda (45^th), Mexico (53^rd), Ghana (63^rd), and Zambia (84^th).

What are your thoughts about the Doing Business survey? Is it a helpful tool for assessing governmental effectiveness? Is the survey unduly biased towards free market-oriented principles? Do you have personal reflections that relate to doing business abroad?

*** Did you like what you read here? You might be interested in the new book by this blog’s author, Failed States: Realities, Risks, and Responses.